629
FXUS61 KRLX 232357
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN WV THOUGH LATE TONIGHT.
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
LITTLE TO NO MODIFICATIONS WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERAL THUNDER RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS
SINCE BEEN ERASED FROM THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK, YIELDING A CLEAN
EIGHT DAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK RISK FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
2) WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO AN UNSETTLED STATE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AMID PASSING DISTURBANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ROUNDS OUT THE WEEKEND UNDER THE
GUISE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS
HAVE SPROUTED OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
SHOWERS OR STORMS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SIMILAR FORECAST
SETS UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
NESTLED OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WE FOUND OURSELVES IN SO FAR THIS
MONTH.
COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY YIELDS DAYTIME HIGHS SPANNING
THE 60S TO LOW 80S, ELEVATION DEPENDENT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME NUDGED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDWEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THURSDAY ONWARD. WE COULD ALSO SEE INFLUENCE FROM A DISTURBANCE
CHURNING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER ON IN THE WEEK. WHETHER
AN UPTICK IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA
WITH THESE WAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
SOIL RECOVERY THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD AID IN LIMITING ANY INITIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED, HOWEVER, FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN WV THOUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THIS, AND STRATOCUMULUS, ALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, IS LIKELY TO HINDER FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
HAVE DENSE FOG BRIEFLY FORMING AFTER A SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT EKN BUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY PAN OUT AT CKB AND
HOUR OR SO EARLIER. HAVE BRIEF MVFR MIST BEFORE DAWN AT PKB AND
CRW.
ANY MORNING FOG AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CUMULUS
FIELD THE BALANCE OF THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
LIGHT WEST TO VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, JUST A BIT GUSTY AT CKB AND EKN. LIGHT
WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PKB TONIGHT AND CKB OVERNIGHT AND, CONVERSELY, MAY
NOT OCCUR AT EKN. THIS WOULD THEN INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG BETWEEN THE TIME OF THE RAIN AND DAYBREAK.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
RIVER VALLEY FOG IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...TRM
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