813
FXUS61 KRLX 240620
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MORNING FOG TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BRINGS DRY, PLEASANT
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED TRAVEL HAZARDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
2.) SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DEPENDING ON TIMING.
3.) LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHWEST INFLOW AROUND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA WILL EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY THURSDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, SUPPORTING MODEST SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 30KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT STORM ORGANIZATION.
GIVEN A DRY MID-LEVEL LAYER BETWEEN H850 AND H700 AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND HAIL SURVIVAL WILL
BE ENHANCED, SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
POINTS WEST (LARGELY KEEPING THE THREAT OUT OF US). HOWEVER,
THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAIN UNCLEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE BENEATH THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S BOUNDARY, HIGH ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS,
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS TRAVERSING NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA NEAR CKB AND EKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ANY ISOLATED FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL REMAIN BRIEF AND PATCHY. A VFR
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING AROUND 4000 TO 5000FT
WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP TO 6 TO 10KTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY, IFR
AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z TUESDAY, YIELDING
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF LIGHT RAIN/CLEARING CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 08/24/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
VALLEY FOG LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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