294
FXUS61 KRLX 250007
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
807 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DEPENDING ON TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUPPORTING
DECENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MESO NAM SHOWING EFFECTIVE
LAYER CAPES OVER 2000 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES OVER 3000. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KTS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT STORM ORGANIZATION. MESO NAM SHOWING
DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1300. GIVEN A DRY MID-LEVEL LAYER AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND HAIL
SURVIVAL WILL BE ENHANCED, SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD (00Z WEDNESDAY), WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. CURRENTLY HAVE ALL
TERMINALS, SAVE BKW, PROGGED WITH VLIFR TOWARDS DAWN VIA FOG.
FOG SHOULD LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 1130-1330Z. A FEW/SCT CU FIELD
(025-045) IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
MVFR CIG RESTRICTION AT BKW/CKB CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FLOW GOES CALM TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM W/ FOG TONIGHT, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAY VARY. BRIEF MVFR STRATOCU COULD
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT BKW/CKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 08/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND ALSO WITH THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...GW
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