212
FXUS61 KRLX 250742
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2.) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
3.) REINFORCING DRY FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SEASONABLE TO WARM WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO
CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND SMALL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROMOTED DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RECUR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY,
DEVELOPING WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S IN THE METRO VALLEY AND LOWLANDS
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A WANING STATE
AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. DIURNAL HEATING DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WILL YIELD MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, FAVORING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MID-
LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL GENERATE DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1300 J/KG,
ELEVATING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF TREE
DAMAGE. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 12-13KFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ANY TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES.
CONVECTION WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH A SECONDARY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS LARGELY DRY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, PLACING THE
REGION UNDER A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE,
RETURNING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES, BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR,
LIFR, AND VLIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS
INCLUDING KCRW, KPKB, KCKB, KEKN, AND KHTS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z, RETURNING ALL TERMINALS TO VFR. EXPECT A
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER 5 KT. ADDITIONAL DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER 05-06Z
WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR IFR TO VLIFR RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 08/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND ALSO WITH THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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