122
FXUS61 KRLX 261540
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1140 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, WITH LOW-END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISKS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH MODELS OUTPUTTING ANYWHERE FROM 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH 20-25 KTS THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THIS IS WHY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CAPPED THE THREAT
AT MARGINAL FOR NOW.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AT 1.70 TO 1.90 INCHES.
OTHERWISE, THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO STILL REMAIN
SENSITIVE AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS,
AND ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOWER IN THESE AREAS AT
1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES. SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THESE SENSITIVE AREAS MAY BE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A LOWER-END FLOOD RISK ACROSS LOW-LYING
AND URBAN AREAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BETWEEN 8:00 PM AND 10:00 PM LOCAL TIME WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY AS A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z, YIELDING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER
10KTS AND FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MID TO
HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
HELP TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT EKN AND CRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS TO AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WHERE ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FALLS THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JP
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