754
FXUS61 KRLX 261702
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED AT 18Z.
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, WITH LOW-END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISKS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH MODELS OUTPUTTING ANYWHERE FROM 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH 20-25 KTS THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THIS IS WHY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CAPPED THE THREAT
AT MARGINAL FOR NOW.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AT 1.70 TO 1.90 INCHES.
OTHERWISE, THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO STILL REMAIN
SENSITIVE AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS,
AND ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOWER IN THESE AREAS AT
1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES. SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THESE SENSITIVE AREAS MAY BE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A LOWER-END FLOOD RISK ACROSS LOW-LYING
AND URBAN AREAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BETWEEN 8:00 PM AND 10:00 PM LOCAL TIME WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY AS A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO RETURN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS
WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING, BUT KCRW, KPKB, AND KEKN SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WILL RETURN
AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS TO AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WHERE ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FALLS THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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