838
FXUS61 KRLX 262337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
1140 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, WITH LOW-END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISKS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH MODELS OUTPUTTING ANYWHERE FROM 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH 20-25 KTS THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THIS IS WHY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CAPPED THE THREAT
AT MARGINAL FOR NOW.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AT 1.70 TO 1.90 INCHES.
OTHERWISE, THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO STILL REMAIN
SENSITIVE AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS,
AND ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOWER IN THESE AREAS AT
1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES. SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THESE SENSITIVE AREAS MAY BE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A LOWER-END FLOOD RISK ACROSS LOW-LYING
AND URBAN AREAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BETWEEN 8:00 PM AND 10:00 PM LOCAL TIME WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY AS A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY, BUT INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A PLEASANT EVENING IS UNDERWAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS
OUR AIRSPACE, PROMOTING IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS WITHIN OUR
SHELTERED VALLEY TERMINALS. FOG EROSION AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR. AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY THEN FORM
INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL SITES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WHERE ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FALLS THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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