412
FXUS61 KRLX 271852
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH
REMAINS LOW.
2.) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS BEGINNING
FRIDAY ONWARD AMID A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND. LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, VERY GRADUALLY SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS, AND ALSO JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA ALONG THE SPINE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN VIA LIFT WITH
ANABATIC CONVERGENCE. LOCALLY, WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS LIMITED THE REGION TO MAINLY JUST FAIR
WEATHER CU OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ISOLD TO SCT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED GIVEN MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF
1,000-2,000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. WHILE THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY HAS LOWERED
SOME, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SPC
MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST
OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. GIVEN A NOTED LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS, THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CORES. WHILE SOME HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, FREEZING LEVELS OF ~ 13 KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL TODAY.
WHILE A LOCALIZED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT, THE OVERALL POTENTIAL IS LOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY MUTED
COMPARED TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH. FOR INSTANCE,
12Z HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES (WITHIN A 25 MILE RADIUS)
OF 1.5" IN AN HOUR ARE BY AND LARGE 10% OR LESS AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STEADILY DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME CONFINED MORE
SO TO IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH DRY
WEATHER AREA-WIDE BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH
JUST THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING VIA TERRAIN
INDUCED DIURNAL FORCING (ANABATIC CONVERGENCE). DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERTOP THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
RISING TO ~ 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY ONWARD, WHEN UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, ALL AMID PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED (MID
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE LOWLANDS), AMID AT LEAST SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A QUIET AFTERNOON THUS FAR WITH A DEVELOPING FEW TO BKN CU
FIELD (025-045). THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
(OR HEAVIER SHOWERS), ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CODED IN
PROB30 GROUPS INTO MOST TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME CONFINED MORE SO TO IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE
BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS SAVE
BKW. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LIFTS AND SCATTERS BY ~13Z FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH ANOTHER FEW/SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SW/WSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH WINDS GOING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NNE TO NNW FLOW DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT COULD AFFECT ANY TERMINAL
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. TIMING, COVERAGE, AND
INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE W/ RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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