100
FXUS61 KRLX 080657
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
257 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND PLACID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS
COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US, WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK. DESPITE THIS RETREAT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE SOUTHEAST OHIO IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FORGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD FACILITATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS, WILL RAISE CONCERNS
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HYDRO-RELATED ISSUES IS LIKELY TO BE ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY, CLOUD COVER AND EARLY ACTIVITY ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY. CONSEQUENTLY, SEVERE POTENTIAL CONCOMITANT WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LOW.
THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY SUSTAIN SOME ACTIVITY PRIMARILY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THEN
PROFFER ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT AT MOST
TERMINALS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS COULD PROMPT BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BY MORNING, THEN TURNS SOUTHERLY AND REMAINS LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EXTENT, DENSITY AND TIMING COULD VARY
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KBKW LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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