276
FXUS61 KRLX 080917
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
517 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND PLACID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS
COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US, WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK. DESPITE THIS RETREAT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE SOUTHEAST OHIO IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FORGES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD FACILITATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS, WILL RAISE CONCERNS
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HYDRO-RELATED ISSUES IS LIKELY TO BE ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY, CLOUD COVER AND EARLY ACTIVITY ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY. CONSEQUENTLY, SEVERE POTENTIAL CONCOMITANT WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LOW.
THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY SUSTAIN SOME ACTIVITY PRIMARILY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THEN
PROFFER ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
PATCHY FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP UNDER CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KBKW TODAY.
FOG EXTENT AND INTENSITY COULD VARY OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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