738
FXUS61 KRLX 081631
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT INCREASES FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY, QUIET, AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BE AN INFLUENCE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY BETWEEN THE LOW 70S
AND MID 80S.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BEING TOO DENSE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY PERMITTING
THE ENTRANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD INITIALLY BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS OUR OHIO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE CONDITIONAL, DEPENDING MOSTLY ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING
OF THE FRONT WILL BE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WANES QUITE A BIT ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND SLOW
FRONT MOTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN
1.00" AND 2.00" OF RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
OH BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THIS
WILL FALL THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE STUBBORN FRONT FINALLY
TRUDGES OUT OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PARKS NEARBY.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
PATCHY FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP UNDER CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS AND STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KBKW TODAY.
FOG EXTENT AND INTENSITY COULD VARY OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...20
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