141
FXUS61 KRLX 090504
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
104 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS OF 453 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
1231 PM UPDATE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT INCREASES FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY, QUIET, AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BE AN INFLUENCE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY BETWEEN THE LOW 70S
AND MID 80S.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BEING TOO DENSE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY PERMITTING
THE ENTRANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD INITIALLY BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS OUR OHIO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE CONDITIONAL, DEPENDING MOSTLY ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING
OF THE FRONT WILL BE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WANES QUITE A BIT ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND SLOW
FRONT MOTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN
1.00" AND 2.00" OF RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
OH BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THIS
WILL FALL THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE STUBBORN FRONT FINALLY
TRUDGES OUT OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PARKS NEARBY.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW.
ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DID OCCUR WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE,
ALLOWING VFR CIGS/VIS TO RULE DURING THE DAY. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS LOWER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
TOWARDS PKB AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
CALM TO LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY, WITH 15 TO 20KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN PIVOT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 13Z, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
AT CRW/EKN WITH FOG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD SET AT CHARLESTON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AT CHARLESTON THIS AUGUST WAS 10.92
INCHES, MAKING IT THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 10.45 INCHES SET IN 1958.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/LTC
AVIATION...20
CLIMATE...GW
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