524
FXUS61 KRLX 090734
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS COULD
PROMPT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING, THEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD MATERIALIZE AND PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING; HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN FOR
THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER/ONGOING ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY
TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY,
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TRAINING STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW ISSUES
IN URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS NEARBY ON FRIDAY, AND THEN A
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A POTENTIAL SYSTEM STEERS A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, SPECIFICS ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW.
ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DID OCCUR WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE,
ALLOWING VFR CIGS/VIS TO RULE DURING THE DAY. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS LOWER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD
TOWARDS PKB AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
CALM TO LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY, WITH 15 TO 20KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN PIVOT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 13Z, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
AT CRW/EKN WITH FOG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD SET AT CHARLESTON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AT CHARLESTON THIS AUGUST WAS 10.92
INCHES, MAKING IT THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 10.45 INCHES SET IN 1958.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLIMATE...GW
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