809
FXUS61 KRLX 090939
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
539 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS COULD
PROMPT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING, THEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD MATERIALIZE AND PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING; HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN FOR
THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER/ONGOING ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY
TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY,
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TRAINING STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW ISSUES
IN URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS NEARBY ON FRIDAY, AND THEN A
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A POTENTIAL SYSTEM STEERS A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, SPECIFICS ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER,
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
DURING THE DAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DETERIORATE AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME BREEZY TODAY, WITH 15-20KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING,
AND ONSET TIME OF RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY COULD ALSO
PROMPT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF THEY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD SET AT CHARLESTON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AT CHARLESTON THIS AUGUST WAS 10.92
INCHES, MAKING IT THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 10.45 INCHES SET IN 1958.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLIMATE...GW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page