246
FXUS61 KRLX 100518
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND TRI-STATE AREA OF WV/OH/KY. ~18Z
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE TABLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS AND ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A SWEEPING LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL
BEING THE MAIN RISKS FOR ANY ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HYDRO ISSUES IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ROUNDS
OF SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRIPE OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
CURRENTLY, 1.50"-2.50" IS PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA/I-64 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THESE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL PROMPT A HEAVY PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RESIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A DRIER SPELL LOOKS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE, AND AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH LOCALLY
STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND INTENSITY OF
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG COULD
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M H H M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M H H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THIS WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...20
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