541
FXUS61 KRLX 100631
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT THIS WEEK. THE SEVERE RISK FOR TODAY WILL BE
LIMITED, THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY, AND THEN
DESCENDS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING ACTIVITY HELP TO TEMPER INSTABILITY. THAT SAID, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT,
PRIMARILY DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHEREVER TRAINING STORMS
DEVELOP. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND RISES ON SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AS A RESULT OF RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS IN TRAINING STORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE ACTIVITY INITIALLY DIMINISHES BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING, MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY
STALLS NEAR THE VA/KY/NC/TN BORDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING MAY FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND IF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT WERE IMPACTED BY HEAVY
RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, THEN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A SYSTEM PROPELS YET ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE, AND AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH LOCALLY
STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND INTENSITY OF
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG COULD
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THIS WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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