753
FXUS61 KRLX 101643
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER
MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING AND
NEW FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING FROM THE CROSSING
COLD FRONT.
BETWEEN 3" AND 6" OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. A CONVEYOR BELT OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER HEAVIER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN THE 5-10 PM TIME
FRAME TODAY. MODELS STILL VARY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL OCCUR. THE HRRR BRINGS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AND I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE METRO VALLEY. THE NAM ON
THE OTHER HAND, CHOOSES TO KEEP IT NORTH FURTHER IMPACTING
LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THIS MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER MAY ULTIMATELY KEEP A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT BAY, BUT FORCING FROM THE CROSSING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLY CREATE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT EXITS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNEAK IN LATE ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING A BRIEF DRIER SPELL AHEAD OF OUR ACTIVE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND 1" TO
1.50" LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY AND THE
CONSENSUS IS DRIER WEATHER THAT WILL SPAN MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, THEN TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT, THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND INTENSITY OF
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG COULD
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THIS WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...20
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