974
FXUS61 KRLX 110539
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONTINUES, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE, BUT LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND AMPLE CAPE, AND
BE OVERALL SOMEWHAT SLOW TO MOVE OWING TO LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS
WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA. WPC HAS
UPGRADED THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK TO A SLIGHT ACROSS SOME OF THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITH FUTURE PACKAGES. SUNDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE, HOWEVER, A FRONT DOES APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS
LATER IN THE DAY, AND INTO MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ANTICIPATED.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START OUT HOT AND HUMID AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR AND AREAS OF LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THEN
WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER 18-20Z. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG AND LOW CEILING FORMATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY VARY SOME FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 09/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H M M H H M H L H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M L L L M L M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M L M M L L H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H L L M M L H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR FOG POSSIBLE MORNINGS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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