226
FXUS61 KRLX 120528
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-79
AND US-119 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RENEWED STORM
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOLLOWING OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS TODAY, ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SATURDAY, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
2) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING PATTERN WAS PRESENT
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT WAS ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THIS
FEATURE TRAILED A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS EJECTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH HAS POSITIONED THE CWA WITHIN THE
INFLECTION POINT OF A CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED, LOW-AMPLITUDE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE NET INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, ALBEIT
SLIGHT, WILL RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF A WEAK MCC ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS KY TOWARDS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESTERN WV. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST, A BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY LOBE, WAS PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UA CHARTS ALSO OBSERVED A
SHARPLY CYCLONIC 250 MB TROUGH OVER AR AS WELL, AND IS EVIDENT ON
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THIS SHORTER-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH PIVOTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH AN EXPECTATION
FOR THE VORTICITY LOBE TO BEGIN DECAYING AS IT ROTATES OVER THE CWA
AMIDST INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WV, WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEMARCATING ITS LOCATION. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED IN AN EAST-WEST-ORIENTED MANNER FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY BEFORE UNDERGOING WARM-FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE OZARK MOUNTAINS EJECTS TOWARDS THE CWA. DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
WHILE THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVE MIXED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WHERE FULL
INSOLATION IS ONGOING. THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MCC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE WEAK UVVS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SUCCUMB TO THE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERTURNED AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE MIXED OUT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, AS RAPID BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COMPACT VORTICITY LOBE WILL HAVE OPENED AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY STRETCHED AS ABSORPTION INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH COMMENCES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OH, NORTHEASTERN KY, AND FAR
WESTERN WV BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS INTO SATURDAY WILL BE OTHERWISE BENIGN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
VALLEY FOG. GREATER COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE OF MORE-VIGOROUS ASCENT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE CWA. THE 12Z RAOB FROM BNA ALSO SAMPLED
A TALL, SKINNY EML; AND WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 1,347 J/KG AND 1,802
J/KG FOR MIXED-LAYER AND MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
OBSERVATION WAS ALSO DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN
THE BELT OF BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ADVECTION OF THIS EML
WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPE VALUES LOCALLY >2,000 J/KG IN CONJUNCTION
WITH CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY, WITH ORGANIZED
CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAINFALL GIVEN WARM-CLOUD
DEPTHS ASCENDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 KFT AGL. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED 2"/HR. MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
CURTAIL THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, BUT A ROGUE, SEVERE-CALIBER
DOWNBURST OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SATURDAY WILL BE TOP-HEAVY
TOWARDS THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND IN SOME CASES, EXTREME RAINFALL, OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-79 AND US-119 CORRIDORS BETWEEN 12 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EDT SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE RUST BELT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE RESPECTIVE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN OH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WV BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY SERVE AS THE IMPETUS FOR
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH MORE-SCATTERED
COVERAGE ARRIVING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SEMI-PROGRESSIVE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE CELLS THAT
CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED. THAT SAID, THE THINKING IS LEANING TOWARDS
WEAKER, DILAPIDATED CONVECTION, THUS MITIGATING THE FLOODING RISK
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECTING LIFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH KCRW AND KEKN MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ANY FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z, HOWEVER, A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 17Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME, AND MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FOCUS IN SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY
REGION. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT AREAS OF LOW VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 03Z, EXPECT THE FORMATION OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIFR AND VLIFR IN POST RAIN
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND TIMING OF FOG MAY VARY FROM WHAT
IS FORECAST. TIMING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 09/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H L L L L M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND IN FOG OR STRATUS MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SL
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