722
FXUS61 KRLX 120929
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
529 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, ALONG
WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PROVIDED STORMS
CAN BECOME ORGANIZED. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT, WHEN STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE WITH DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE AND LOSS OF HEATING.
GREATEST RISK AREA LOOKS TO BE THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION AND
POSSIBLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE MORE VULNERABLE
DUE TO RECENT RAINS, AND WHERE LATEST RUNS OF THE HREF/REFS HAVE A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. DID ELECT TO
GO AHEAD AND ADD A TIER OF COUNTIES EAST TO THE WATCH, ALTHOUGH NOT
AS MUCH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING FOR THESE
AREAS, BUT TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE TERRAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS CAUSING ISSUES.
CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK TO BE DRIER ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING WEAK WAVES MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
DAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER PROVIDING STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AND SURVIVE
INTO OUR AREA. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT ARRIVAL LATER IN THE
DAY FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR OUR
REGION.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WARM AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. DIFFERENCES EXIST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE MODELS CONCERNING TIMING OF
BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AND RETURN OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VALLEY FOG WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 13-14Z.
HOWEVER, A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. BULK OF STORM
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 17Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME, AND
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FOCUS IN SE OHIO AND THE
MID OHIO VALLEY REGION INCLUDING AT SITES KPKB AND KCKB.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT AREAS OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 03Z, EXPECT THE FORMATION OF
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF VLIFR IN POST RAIN
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREDICTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L M H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND IN FOG OR STRATUS MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-525-526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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