496
FXUS61 KRLX 130526
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS RETURN LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DRIER BUT WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK TO BE DRIER ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING WEAK WAVES MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
PROVIDING STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AND SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA.
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT ARRIVAL LATER IN THE DAY FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR OUR REGION PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WARM AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. DIFFERENCES EXIST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
MODELS CONCERNING TIMING OF BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AND RETURN OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT APPROACHES, AND MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA, POSSIBLY BRINGING A RETURN OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR OR WORSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z,
WHEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY VFR WILL
OCCUR, WITH CONDITIONS SLOWER TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER SUNDAY EVENING WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STORMS. COVERAGE AND TIMING AT THIS TIME TOO UNCERTAIN FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF'S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW VIS/CIGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 09/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M H L M H M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M H L H L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M H L L M M M M M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H L H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H L M H M M H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND IN FOG OR STRATUS MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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