708
FXUS61 KRLX 130926
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
526 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS RETURN LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DRIER BUT WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK TO BE DRIER ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING WEAK WAVES MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
PROVIDING STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AND SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA.
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT ARRIVAL LATER IN THE DAY FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR OUR REGION PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WARM AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. DIFFERENCES EXIST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
MODELS CONCERNING TIMING OF BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AND RETURN OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT APPROACHES, AND MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA, POSSIBLY BRINGING A RETURN OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY 16Z,
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER IN SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR A LITTLE LONGER.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING, MAINLY AFTER 21Z,
AND MAINLY AFFECTING SITES IN SE OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV
INCLUDING KPKB AND KCKB, ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER
SITES. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOG SHOULD OVERALL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M H M H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H L H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M H M H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M L H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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