320
FXUS61 KRLX 131843
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS
EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THEN PROCEEDS INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK ALONGSIDE THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR REMAINS GENERALLY QUIET OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN PASSING
CUMULUS FIELDS. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, A COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED TO BE DRAPED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO OHIO
AND INDIANA. HI-RES MODELS PAINT A CLUSTER OF STORMS
INITIALIZING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OF THIS
DISCUSSION ISSUANCE, THEN DEVELOPING INTO A LINE ORIENTED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING.
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS LINE CLIPS OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ZONES NEAR DUSK, LOSING AID FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND YIELDING A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
AFTERNOON TOOK PLACE OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH AN
UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE SLATED
TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE AREA, ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THAT IF
STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR COMPOSURE AS THEY ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD BE OBSERVED.
PRECIPITATION TRACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT, TAPERING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ONCE THE BOUNDARY COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE THROUGH
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A BUILDING RIDGE IS SLATED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGION MAY BOLSTER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE
LOOKING LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT THAT BUILDS WITHIN THIS UPPER
LEVEL REGIME ADVERTISES THE RETURN OF HEAT INDICES INCHING
CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE THE CASE FOR URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS THE KANAWHA VALLEY,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS WILL REACH MID TO UPPER 90S
HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, OPENING THE DOOR FOR WAVES OF
SHORTWAVES TO JOURNEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RESUME AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS PARKED BETWEEN 20-40KFT AGL CONTINUE TO
ROAM OVER OUR AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
EVENING. ATTACHED TO THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WEAKENING UPON APPROACH TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR COMPOSURE NEAR PKB,
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AND AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MAIN IMPLICATIONS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOW
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO FORM AT MOST TERMINALS BELOW GRADUALLY ERODING
AFTER DAYBREAK. A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER IS THEN SET TO
PROCEED HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMOTE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT PKB THIS EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AFTER FOG EROSION MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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