032
FXUS61 KRLX 141014
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
614 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND INSERTED SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE MADE.
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD, AMID INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY ONWARD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS W/BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS IT CROSSES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR THE DAY ON
MONDAY. SOME VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTHWARD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE INCREASED MIXING AND UPSLOPE STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TRAVERSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A VERY
PLEASANT DAY TO THE AREA. STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE INTO A
FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL BRING A SEASONABLY COOL DAY TO THE AREA,
WITH 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A
COOL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS PROGGED IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TYPICAL LOWLAND VALLEY
COLD SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S, WITH UPPER 30S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. RETURN DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT, BUT GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIVERS AND AIR TONIGHT, DID INSERT PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RETURN FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO 90 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD REACH INTO
THE MID/UPPER 90S AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA REMAINS DRY ON WEDNESDAY, SOME MODEST DIURNAL BUOYANCY
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/LAND FORCED ASCENT, AS WELL AS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO THEN STALL
(EAST/WEST) AND/OR MEANDER ACROSS THE GENERAL OHIO VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS,
GENERALLY FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OR WHEN WEAK
UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST SOME HYDRO CONCERNS COULD MATERIALIZE
UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN, WITH THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER BEING LOW GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS BEING
GENERALLY DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA, WITH POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE STRATOCU IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT
BKW/CKB/CRW/EKN, LOWEST BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CIGS
SHOULD STEADILY LIFT / SCATTER INTO A VFR FEW 020-030 CU FIELD
BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR THEN PERSISTING AREA-WIDE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY) AMID
DRY CONDITIONS. SOME RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT CRW AND EKN.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH FLOW GOING
CALM AT MOST SITES TONIGHT, OR TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT ESE FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO VFR FROM MORNING STRATOCU MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING
TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L M H M H M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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