778
FXUS61 KRLX 141814
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES AMID HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
2) TURNING ACTIVE ONCE MORE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL IN CLOSE
VICINITY TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
SERVING UP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE FINAL PATCH OF STRATUS ERODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CUMULUS FIELDS AND SUNSHINE PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK, BEGINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SLIDING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RULE THE ROOST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
IN THE PROCESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH'S EASTWARD JOURNEY, A WARMING
TREND IS SET TO ENSUE. A TASTE OF FALL IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/60S. TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE
OF SUMMERTIME THEN TRIUMPH OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPOSE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
STRETCHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TURNS MORE
ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A FRONT
BOUNDARY TO DRAPE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES A COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
THEN RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT OR WOBBLES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FLOWING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SERVE UP
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AT TIMES, CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ACTIVE
PATTERNS THE REGION HAS FACED WITHIN THE PAST MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING STRATUS FROM A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BRANCH OUT INTO
AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS, PARKED AROUND 30-40KFT AGL. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN TODAY KICKS OFF A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. DURING THIS TIME, GENERALLY QUIET DAYTIME FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG IS FIRST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND EKN LATE TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY CRAWL DOWN TOWARDS CRW AND
PKB BY TUESDAY MORNING. MORNING FOG EROSION THEN BRANCHES OUT
INTO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN GUSTS,
NEARING 20 KNOTS, MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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