128
FXUS61 KRLX 150446
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LARGE AIR / RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THIS MORNING AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FLUX HAS QUICKLY HELPED TO FACILITATE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN
SUCH, HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED PROGGED FOG COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, WITH DENSE FOG
EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, HAVE LOWERED MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 724 PM MONDAY
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS OF 214 PM MONDAY...
OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES AMID
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
2) TURNING ACTIVE ONCE MORE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL IN CLOSE
VICINITY TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
SERVING UP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE FINAL PATCH OF STRATUS ERODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CUMULUS FIELDS AND SUNSHINE PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK, BEGINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SLIDING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RULE THE ROOST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
IN THE PROCESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH'S EASTWARD JOURNEY, A WARMING
TREND IS SET TO ENSUE. A TASTE OF FALL IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/60S. TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE
OF SUMMERTIME THEN TRIUMPH OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPOSE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
STRETCHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TURNS MORE
ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A FRONT
BOUNDARY TO DRAPE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES A COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
THEN RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT OR WOBBLES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FLOWING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SERVE UP
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AT TIMES, CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ACTIVE
PATTERNS THE REGION HAS FACED WITHIN THE PAST MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL GENERALLY LIMIT FOG/VERY LOW CLOUD FORMATION TO THE
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS AND UPWIND MOISTURE SOURCE TERMINALS
LIKE EKN AND PKB, BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY STUFF
ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM DISSIPATE THROUGH
13Z WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/GW
AVIATION...JP
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