126
FXUS61 KRLX 150550
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LARGE AIR / RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THIS MORNING AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FLUX HAS QUICKLY HELPED TO FACILITATE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN
SUCH, HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED PROGGED FOG COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, WITH DENSE FOG
EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, HAVE LOWERED MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH AN UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION ALSO ISSUED.
AS OF 214 PM MONDAY...
OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES AMID
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
2) TURNING ACTIVE ONCE MORE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL IN CLOSE
VICINITY TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
SERVING UP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE FINAL PATCH OF STRATUS ERODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CUMULUS FIELDS AND SUNSHINE PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK, BEGINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SLIDING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RULE THE ROOST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
IN THE PROCESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH'S EASTWARD JOURNEY, A WARMING
TREND IS SET TO ENSUE. A TASTE OF FALL IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/60S. TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE
OF SUMMERTIME THEN TRIUMPH OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPOSE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
STRETCHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TURNS MORE
ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A FRONT
BOUNDARY TO DRAPE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES A COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
THEN RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT OR WOBBLES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL ENSEMBLES SIGNAL DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FLOWING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SERVE UP
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AT TIMES, CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ACTIVE
PATTERNS THE REGION HAS FACED WITHIN THE PAST MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH LIFR/VLIFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
CRW/EKN/PKB. RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR AT CKB/HTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE, WITH TEMPO GROUPS INSERTED INTO THEIR
TAFS FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL LIFT DISSIPATE FROM ~
1130-1330Z ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS GIVES WAY TO CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
FEW/SCT (025-045) CU FIELD IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (06Z WEDNESDAY).
CALM OR LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND GENERALLY SSW TO SE FLOW DURING THE
DAY TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE, TIMING, AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF MVFR
W/ STRATOCU COULD OCCUR AT BKW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, MOST LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS IN
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/GW
AVIATION...GW
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