171
FXUS61 KRLX 301737
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
2.) WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINS SETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH
SURFACE FLOW TO PREVENT MUCH FOG FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY
FOG IN THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE AT FOG DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
UNAFFECTED BY FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE A FEW PATCHES HERE AND
THERE WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AND MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE LOW INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, HOWEVER THIS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DCAPE AND PWAT VALUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FOR FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT IN AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORMS HIT OVER A FLOOD PRONE OR LOW
LYING AREA REPEATEDLY. WPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKED FOR SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRIGNIA.
DEPENDING HOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SATURDAY, WHICH IS
MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS, WILL DETERMINE THE
SEVERITY OF ANY REAL HYDRO THREATS FOR SATURDAY.
AS THE FRONT SWINGS DOWN TO OUR SOUTH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST SECTORS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND PUSHES
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA THE MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS REINFORCING
COLD FRONT FEATURE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL FILTER OUT ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRINGING
DOWN TEMPERATURES VALUES TO BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 60S FORECAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ENOUGH
SURFACE FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE IN THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
LIKELY AFFECT EKN. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SPARED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN SOME
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG IN DEEP VALLEYS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13/14Z AT EKN RETURNING VFR CONDITONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF IFR FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV
AND SOUTHWESTERN VA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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