369
FXUS61 KRLX 010342
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1142 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY AND WARMER TODAY.
2.) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
CONSIDERABLY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR ALL BUT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT HOWEVER, THAT SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY, MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH, LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW WITH FOG AT EKN OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE
HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, DENSITY, AND LOCATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF IFR FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV
AND SOUTHWESTERN VA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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