043
FXUS61 KRLX 020615
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) COOLER AND QUIETER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- AT LEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA -- AS THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT TODAY, MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS THEN GENERALLY REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FADE AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM
TRAVERSES EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND PROPELS THE FRONT
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN INTO FROST TERRITORY IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY FOG MAY PROMPT A FEW RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING, THOUGH EXTENT
WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIND. MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING,
THEN GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE MAINTAINED AMD NOT SKED FOR PKB DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE ASOS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/02/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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