016
FXUS61 KRLX 020954
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
554 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) COOLER AND QUIETER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- AT LEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA -- AS THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT TODAY, MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS THEN GENERALLY REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FADE AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM
TRAVERSES EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND PROPELS THE FRONT
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN INTO FROST TERRITORY IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
LIKELY TO TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED AMD NOT SKED FOR PKB DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE ASOS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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