855
FXUS61 KRLX 021811
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT PROVIDES SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) COOLER AND QUIETER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND IS
PUSHING FURTHER INTO OUR AREA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF NOW, LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AREA IN OUR CWA. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT, HOWEVER WE
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM WHICH
MAY LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS GUSTS THAN WHAT IS OUT THERE
ALREADY. SPS WORTHY WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE THE CASE AND
THE SEVERE THREAT IS NIL DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF
STRONG WIND SHEAR.
WPC HAS US UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH
COULD PROMOTE VERY ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING REALLY ONLY ACROSS FLOOD OR NUISANCE PRONE AREAS UNDER
POSSIBLE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE AREA HAS BEEN DRY AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE SO THE THREAT IS
CONFINED TO THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THIS SHOWER AND POSSIBLE STORM ACTIVITY WILL GO INTO THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS TO OUR SOUTH FOR A CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT TO OUR
SOUTH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY
FOR TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WILL BE SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE. WPC
ALSO HAS US UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO
AGAIN, SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER FLOOD PRONE OR NUISANCE AREAS.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING IN MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ALBEIT SUB-SEVERE IN
NATURE ONCE AGAIN. WPC AGAIN HAS US UNDER A MARGINAL HOWEVER TO
A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM, A BROAD CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM, BRINGS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF SUNDAY. THIS NEW
FEATURE WILL PUSH THE MEANDERING WAVE OUT OF THE AREA AND
PROVIDE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND PROVIDE
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER EXITING TOWARD THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
MORNING, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ADVECTS IN COLD AIR
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW SEASONABLE FOR
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.
AS THE COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE NEW WORK
WEEK THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
COULD OCCUR ON EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODERATE SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK TO WHERE THE THREAT FOR FROST WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IF HIT BY A SHOWER WILL BE THE
MAIN THEME GOING INTO THIS FORECAST TAF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
ALSO IN CIGS ACROSS EKN/BKW THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT WITH THE WINDS
PREVAILING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT. CIGS
WILL THEN LIFT AND SCATTER OUT OF ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR BKW BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER WILL STAY SUB-SEVERE
IN NATURE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M M M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L M M H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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