101
FXUS61 KRLX 030934
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
534 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. EARLY MORNING FROST
MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FRONT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUSTAIN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND AT
LEAST LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND PROPELS THE STALLED FRONT
OUT TO SEA WHILE THE PARENT LOW TRAVELS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THEN SETS IN FOR THE WORK WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW WILL RESULT IN
RATHER CHILLY NIGHTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND MILDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A COMBINATION OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL THEN SUSTAIN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 12KTS OR LESS
TODAY, THEN TURN CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT AND
PRECIPITATION END TIME MAY VARY FROM TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page