231
FXUS61 KRLX 032319
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND,
THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
EARLY MORNING FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TRIPLE POINT IS SITTING
JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY TRAVERSING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS
A TROUGH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS PROMOTING SOME INSTANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AMONG THE RAIN, LOW
CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT ALONG THE FEATURE AS WELL. AS THIS
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ABOUT, THE REST OF THE WEEKEND COULD
LOOK AT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS SECTOR OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS A REINFORCING MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT THROUGH PROMPTING THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO PUSH OFF
AND OUT OF THE REGION TO WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALSO PROMPT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CHANCE FOR FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TO INITIATE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT WHERE
VALLEYS DROP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WHEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WV LOWLANDS, WITH AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING AT SITE KBKW
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS, AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPING.
ANY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY
FROM TAFS. FOG FORMATION MAY VARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L L M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...SL
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