837
FXUS61 KRLX 040519
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
119 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND,
THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
EARLY MORNING FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TRIPLE POINT IS SITTING
JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY TRAVERSING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS
A TROUGH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS PROMOTING SOME INSTANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AMONG THE RAIN, LOW
CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT ALONG THE FEATURE AS WELL. AS THIS
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ABOUT, THE REST OF THE WEEKEND COULD
LOOK AT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS SECTOR OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS A REINFORCING MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT THROUGH PROMPTING THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO PUSH OFF
AND OUT OF THE REGION TO WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALSO PROMPT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CHANCE FOR FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVEN POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TO INITIATE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT WHERE
VALLEYS DROP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS A RESULT OF
LOW CEILINGS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AT BKW MUCH OF
THE DAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA RETURNS TO VFR. CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER 00Z.
WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE CALM TO LIGHT,
STRONGER FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PROMPT A FEW GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS AT BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...20
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