781
FXUS61 KRLX 041822
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND DRIER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY HAS BEEN VERY STAGNANT AND NOT
CLEARING OUT AT ALL, INSTEAD IT HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO THE
CWA MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASED SOME
IN CLOUD HEIGHTS. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT TOWARD
THE EAST TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TAKES PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. AS SURFACE
FLOW DROPS OFF AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART,
VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITONS ALONG WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH DEAD SURFACE FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWS
IN THE MORNING COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK TO DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR ANYMORE FROST POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM TRAVELING TO OUR REGION FROM
THE GULF. GRATER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY
CENTRAL GUIDANCE ON THIS DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND EXIT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TO
WHERE HTS/PKB WILL STAY VFR AND THE REST WILL STAY MVFR UNTIL
THE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
CLOUDS TO HOVER AROUND WILL BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO WHERE MVFR
MAY IMPACT EKN/BKW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
ANY CLEARING WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG TO WHERE SITES SUCH AS
CRW/EKN WILL BE IMPACTED WITH DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. THE
OTHER SITES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FOG WHILE MAINTAINING SOME
SURFACE FLOW HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE SITE
TEMPORARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z
AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS A DRY COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOR THE REST OF MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT/TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG ON A DAILY BASIS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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