815
FXUS61 KRLX 042331
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
731 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND DRIER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY HAS BEEN VERY STAGNANT AND NOT
CLEARING OUT AT ALL, INSTEAD IT HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO THE
CWA MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASED SOME
IN CLOUD HEIGHTS. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT TOWARD
THE EAST TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TAKES PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. AS SURFACE
FLOW DROPS OFF AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART,
VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITONS ALONG WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH DEAD SURFACE FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWS
IN THE MORNING COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK TO DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR ANYMORE FROST POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM TRAVELING TO OUR REGION FROM
THE GULF. GRATER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY
CENTRAL GUIDANCE ON THIS DAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A CIRRUS CANOPY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WHILE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH IN
ADVANCE AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY FRONTAL MIXING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM DISSIPATES
THROUGH 13-14Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL TURN LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AT 5KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING OVERNIGHT MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON THE DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND THE EXACT
TIMING OF FRONTAL MIXING. TERMINALS EXPERIENCING PERSISTENT
SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT MAY AVOID FOG ENTIRELY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAILY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR
OR LIFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JP
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