983
FXUS61 KRLX 050511
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND DRIER FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY HAS BEEN VERY STAGNANT AND NOT
CLEARING OUT AT ALL, INSTEAD IT HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO THE
CWA MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASED SOME
IN CLOUD HEIGHTS. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT TOWARD
THE EAST TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TAKES PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. AS SURFACE
FLOW DROPS OFF AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART,
VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITONS ALONG WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH DEAD SURFACE FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWS
IN THE MORNING COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK TO DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR ANYMORE FROST POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM TRAVELING TO OUR REGION FROM
THE GULF. GRATER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY
CENTRAL GUIDANCE ON THIS DAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS AND LOWER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FOG, ALTHOUGH KPKB SHOULD REMAIN IFR. KHTS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD, BUT TRENDS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS TODAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG NEAR SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS ARE SET TO LINGER INTO
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT KEKN EVEN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE,
FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. LIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DICTATE HOW
LONG FOG LASTS AT THE TERMINALS, WITH TERMINALS NEAREST THE OHIO
RIVER CLEARING OUT FIRST BEFORE TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF I-79
CLEAR LATER. SUB-VFR CIGS MAY ALSO LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AT KEKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L M L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR. HOWEVER, BOUTS OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
IFR VSBYS OR LOWER SHOULD FOG AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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