194
FXUS61 KRLX 050653
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA, AND IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 9 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BEYOND THE USUAL
RIVER VALLEYS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
9 AM EDT TO HIGHLIGHT THE FOG THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ASSESSMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS ALSO BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST THIS WEEK FOLLOWING
WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A NEUTRALLY-TILTING, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES OVER THE REGION THAT WERE OBJECTIVELY
ANALYZED BY THE 05/00Z UA CHARTS. FARTHER SOUTH, THE CORE OF A WEAK,
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FL STRAITS, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND VERTICALLY-STACKED WHILE ENTERING THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA, AS THE SPLIT IN THE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS PHASING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOLLOWING
THE EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH A CLEAR SKY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-79 AND HWY-119 CORRIDORS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WAS ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE ERIE, WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A
LINE FROM ERI-CMH-CVG. THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
MOISTENING EVEN BENEATH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS
SHIELD, WITH WIDESPREAD FOG EVIDENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
LOWLANDS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEYOND THE NORMAL RIVER VALLEYS, AND A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WV COUNTIES AND
THE FAR WESTERN VA COUNTIES UNTIL 13Z, OR 9 AM EDT. VISIBILITIES MAY
FALL TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR SOME LOCALES. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, DRY ADVECTION FROM THE CP
AIRMASS TRAILING BEHIND WILL CAUSE FOG TO MIX OUT EVEN BEFORE
SUNRISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT, WITH FOG MIXING OUT ENTIRELY NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, AND DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED FROM THE NBM DUE TO THE
DRY, CP AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AREA-WIDE AFTER DARK.
OVERNIGHT, CHILLY-TO-COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AS THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS MAXIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV TONIGHT, AND A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBOUR, POCAHONTAS, AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BETWEEN 06/04-13Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE LOCALES WILL FALL TO NEAR 33-34 DEGREES, WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS OF THE CWA WHILE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WAS APPLIED TO TUESDAY,
AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH FROST POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF FROST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH PERSISTENT NVA ALOFT KEEPING
THE REGION DRY EVEN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY DUE TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. POPS ARE NIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS AND LOWER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FOG, WITH IFR AT KHTS AND KPKB. MVFR CIGS ARE SET
TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT KEKN EVEN AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE, FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DICTATE HOW LONG FOG LASTS AT
THE TERMINALS, WITH TERMINALS NEAREST THE OHIO RIVER CLEARING
OUT FIRST BEFORE TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF I-79 CLEAR LATER.
SUB-VFR CIGS MAY ALSO LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KEKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR. HOWEVER, BOUTS OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
IFR VSBYS OR LOWER SHOULD FOG AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ040-523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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