486
FXUS61 KRLX 051631
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK, BRINGING
TYPICAL OCTOBER HIGH-PRESSURE CONCERNS, I.E. RIVER VALLEY FOG
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD FOG LIFTED INTO A STUBBORN STRATOCU FIELD SE OF THE
OHIO RIVER WHICH IS FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT, FOG WILL BECOME MORE
ANCHORED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, WHERE IT
WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, AWAY FROM THE FOGGY
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE FROST ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS
THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE FROST AND WAS LEFT AS-
IS. TEMPERATURES DON'T APPEAR AS COLD TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER
ARRIVING EITHER LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS
TROPICAL ORIGINS SO COULD BRING PLENTIFUL RAINS, BUT THERE'S
ALSO PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE IT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ040-523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
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