856
FXUS61 KRLX 052345
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK, BRINGING
TYPICAL OCTOBER HIGH-PRESSURE CONCERNS, I.E. RIVER VALLEY FOG
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD FOG LIFTED INTO A STUBBORN STRATOCU FIELD SE OF THE
OHIO RIVER WHICH IS FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT, FOG WILL BECOME MORE
ANCHORED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, WHERE IT
WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, AWAY FROM THE FOGGY
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE FROST ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS
THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE FROST AND WAS LEFT AS-
IS. TEMPERATURES DON'T APPEAR AS COLD TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER
ARRIVING EITHER LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS
TROPICAL ORIGINS SO COULD BRING PLENTIFUL RAINS, BUT THERE'S
ALSO PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE IT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
QUIET DAYTIME FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LATE NIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG.
SURFACE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME CALM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SLOWLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONCE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BECAME
SUFFICIENT FOR FOG FORMATION TUESDAY MORNING, WILL LIKELY SEE
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS BEGIN AT EKN, THEN SPREAD DOWN INTO CRW
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG EROSION WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z, BRANCHING OUT INTO ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT; MEDIUM IN FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY IFR DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ040-523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...05
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