566
FXUS61 KRLX 060500
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
100 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK, BRINGING
TYPICAL OCTOBER HIGH-PRESSURE CONCERNS, I.E. RIVER VALLEY FOG
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD FOG LIFTED INTO A STUBBORN STRATOCU FIELD SE OF THE
OHIO RIVER WHICH IS FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT, FOG WILL BECOME MORE
ANCHORED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, WHERE IT
WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, AWAY FROM THE FOGGY
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE FROST ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS
THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE FROST AND WAS LEFT AS-
IS. TEMPERATURES DON'T APPEAR AS COLD TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER
ARRIVING EITHER LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS
TROPICAL ORIGINS SO COULD BRING PLENTIFUL RAINS, BUT THERE'S
ALSO PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE IT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IS UNDERWAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-79 CORRIDOR, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY AFFECT KCRW
AND KEKN THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN VSBY
REDUCTIONS FROM FOG AT KCKB AND KPKB IS LOW; HOWEVER, AT LEAST LIGHT
FOG APPEARS ON THE DOCKET BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS ON GOES-19 FOG
CHANNELS. THEREFORE, 6SM HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES WITH
THIS CYCLE. LIFR/VLIFR IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED AT KCRW AND KEKN. FOG
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH VFR AND CALM
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG THROUGH 13Z. HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR COULD OCCUR AT KCKB
AND KPKB DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. THE TIMING OF FOG
LIFTING MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
VALLEY FOG IS SET TO RETURN TO KEKN TONIGHT, AND MAY POTENTIALLY
AFFECT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRIER AIR
SETTLING IN WITH THE POLAR AIRMASS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ040-523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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