597
FXUS61 KRLX 060931
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POLAR HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
MODIFY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH TYPICAL VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CWA WILL BE BEREFT OF ANY INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE ONCE-NEUTRALLY-TILTING
TROUGH HAS NOW BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE DIGGING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH HAS ALSO CROSSED EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WHILE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS, WITH A MODEST POLAR SURFACE
HIGH, ANALYZED AT 1024 MB, SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THE COLD,
DENSE, SINKING AIR HAS RESULTED IN A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY THIS EARLY
MORNING, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWLANDS. HIGH-RESOLUTION NWP GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED TO INITIALIZE ANY FOG, SO THE GRIDS WERE MANUALLY TWEAKED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND IN OBSERVATIONS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT THE
USUAL TIME AFTER SUNRISE, OR BY ABOUT 14Z, FOR ALL LOCALES. FROST
CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV,
AND THE FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 13Z FOR BARBOUR,
POCAHONTAS, AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 33 DEGREES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
DESPITE THIS AIRMASS BEING OF POLAR ORIGIN, IT HAS ALREADY MODIFIED
DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE PRIOR COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY MORNING AND THE RESPECTIVE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE MEAN TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RESTORATION OF
RETURN FLOW OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM-UP WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK (AND DRY) COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES. POPS REMAIN NIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
REMNANTS OF INVEST 92L, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS
IT MOVES POLEWARD. HOWEVER, DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE TRACK OF THIS
UNDEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INLAND. THEREFORE,
IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, DURATION, AND EXTENT;
AND IMPACTS, IF ANY. REGARDLESS, AT LEAST SOME RAIN IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BEYOND, WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE WEEK LONG DRY
SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VALLEY FOG THAT HAS RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS WILL ERODE BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CALM WINDS. VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST
TO RETURN TO KEKN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS KCKB AND KCRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 14Z, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEK, WITH ROUNDS OF VALLEY
FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ040-523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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