287
FXUS61 KRLX 070717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT FROM THE MIDDLE-OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE PARENT LOW LUMBERS ACROSS JAMES BAY AND CENTRAL
QUEBEC. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT, AND A SWIFT
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AFTER ITS PASSAGE, BENIGN WEATHER IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DURING THE WEEKEND, A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO INVADE THE
GULF STATES BEFORE MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
TROUGH AND LOW MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM HEADS INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY; HOWEVER, THIS DRIER INTERLUDE IS LIKELY TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AND FERRIES A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS BEFORE FOG DISSIPATES
AROUND 12-14Z. AREAWIDE VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CALM WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG THIS MORNING, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF LATE-NIGHT
AND EARLY-MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG. CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page