994
FXUS61 KRLX 201729
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. CONTINUE THE ONGOING
MODIFICATION TO AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
SHOW READINGS BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WHILE CHILLY OVERNIGHTS WITH PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL AND RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RETAIN PLEASANT WEATHER
UNDER ITS REIGN, FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH OF THE
SAME EACH NIGHT, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AND PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR THIS EVENING, DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE FOR
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS NEEDED IN OUR REMAINING GROWING SEASON
ZONES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VAST LAYER OF DRY AIR
PARKED OVER THE REGION, WHICH REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN. CENTRAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN TOO HIGH WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS, SO OPTED TO BLEND IN
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THAT CAPTURE THIS AFTERNOON DROP INTO
THE 20S/30S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
PROMOTING VFR DAYTIME FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RIVER VALLEY FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG PRODUCTION TRANSPIRES SHORTLY AFTER 09Z AND WILL
FESTER AROUND CRW, PKB, AND EKN THROUGH 13Z/14Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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