809
FXUS61 KRLX 202311
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
708 PM UPDATE...
~00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
129 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. CONTINUE THE ONGOING
MODIFICATION TO AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
SHOW READINGS BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WHILE CHILLY OVERNIGHTS WITH PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL AND RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RETAIN PLEASANT WEATHER
UNDER ITS REIGN, FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH OF THE
SAME EACH NIGHT, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AND PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR THIS EVENING, DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE FOR
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS NEEDED IN OUR REMAINING GROWING SEASON
ZONES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VAST LAYER OF DRY AIR
PARKED OVER THE REGION, WHICH REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN. CENTRAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN TOO HIGH WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS, SO OPTED TO BLEND IN
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THAT CAPTURE THIS AFTERNOON DROP INTO
THE 20S/30S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS LOCKED IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, MOSTLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT CRW, EKN, AND PKB BETWEEN THE HOURS
~09Z AND ~13Z WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY ~14Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND VISIBILITY WITH FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...LTC
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