577
FXUS61 KRLX 210542
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
843 PM UPDATE...
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WEST
VIRGINIA FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
708 PM UPDATE...
~00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
129 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. CONTINUE THE ONGOING
MODIFICATION TO AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
SHOW READINGS BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WHILE CHILLY OVERNIGHTS WITH PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL AND RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
843 PM UPDATE...
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND FAILED TO RECOVER
PROPERLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY THE LOW-LYING VALLEYS
WHERE ISOLATED POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
129 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RETAIN PLEASANT WEATHER
UNDER ITS REIGN, FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH OF THE
SAME EACH NIGHT, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AND PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR THIS EVENING, DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE FOR
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS NEEDED IN OUR REMAINING GROWING SEASON
ZONES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VAST LAYER OF DRY AIR
PARKED OVER THE REGION, WHICH REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN. CENTRAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN TOO HIGH WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS, SO OPTED TO BLEND IN
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THAT CAPTURE THIS AFTERNOON DROP INTO
THE 20S/30S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 06Z
THURSDAY) AMID CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN DURING
THIS PERIOD IS WITH RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE THIS MORNING WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE VLIFR
RESTRICTIONS PROGGED AT CRW/EKN/HTS/PKB TOWARDS DAWN. ANY FOG
THAT FORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 12-1400Z, WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR THEREAFTER.
CALM FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT NNW TO NNE SURFACE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW GOES CALM
AFTER SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ010-011-
016>020-027>032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/LTC
AVIATION...GW
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