107
FXUS61 KRLX 211654
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1254 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SE OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
LIGHT WINDS. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FROST LATE TONIGHT, I.E. SE OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV. OUTSIDE OF
THE ADVISORY PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AGAIN MOST MORNINGS THIS WEEK IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS.
WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN LIGHT, OWING FOR FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW
OVERALL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 06-08Z WHEN PATCHY
LIFR/VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN. FOG WILL GENERALLY
DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH A RETURN OF VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-027>032.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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