994
FXUS61 KRLX 220529
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS OF 1253 PM WEDNESDAY...
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SE OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV
FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
LIGHT WINDS. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FROST LATE TONIGHT, I.E. SE OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV. OUTSIDE OF
THE ADVISORY PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AGAIN MOST MORNINGS THIS WEEK IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS.
WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN LIGHT, OWING FOR FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW
OVERALL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY) AMID CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD IS WITH RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE VLIFR
RESTRICTIONS PROGGED AT CRW/EKN/HTS/PKB TOWARDS DAWN. ANY FOG
THAT FORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 12-1400Z, WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR THEREAFTER.
CALM FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT NNW TO NNE SURFACE FLOW ON THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES OF ~15 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FLOW GOES CALM AFTER SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-027>032.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...GW
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