386
FXUS61 KRLX 220658
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE. 06Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, WHILE CHILLY OVERNIGHTS WITH PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL AND RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXTENDED DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NE/SE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
ATTEMPT TO PUSH A RATHER WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT MORE
OR LESS WILL JUST WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA IF IT EVEN MAKES IT
THIS FAR SOUTH, AND WILL HAVE NO NOTEWORTHY AFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, NEAR WALL-TO-WALL CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
WARM TO ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY ONWARD W/ RETURN
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE 30S,
BUT AMID QUITE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW, WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 10
MPH OR GREATER CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. FIRE DANGER
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVERALL GIVEN THE PROGGED WINDS,
BUT FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
GIVEN VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT,
WITH A FROST ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL TARGETED FROST ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND GOING FORWARD IS ANTICIPATED, BUT WILL BE CORRELATED
TO HOW SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN EACH AFTERNOON.
LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHILE AS WARM AS LOW 40S
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS GIVEN STEAM FOG, WITH 30S ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING TOWARDS DAWN IN THE 'TYPICAL' SPOTS. A
WIDESPREAD SEASON ENDING FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REMAINING ACTIVE GROWING SEASON IN THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY) AMID CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD IS WITH RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE VLIFR
RESTRICTIONS PROGGED AT CRW/EKN/HTS/PKB TOWARDS DAWN. ANY FOG
THAT FORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 12-1400Z, WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR THEREAFTER.
CALM FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT NNW TO NNE SURFACE FLOW ON THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES OF ~15 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FLOW GOES CALM AFTER SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-027>032.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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